If the casino has an advantage over the player, why on earth does someone play the game? I think most people have no idea they are playing a losing game. Others are so arrogant they think they can dominate the casino and turn a negative into a positive expectation, even in the long term. Others know they will lose but still play for fun and excitement. As a knowledgeable player, why would you even bother to play a game you know you beat? As a knowledgeable player, is there hope that you can create a winner, at least occasionally, even if you are statistically lower?
Craps is a game of numbers and statistics, with houses built to take advantage. Since craps are based on statistics, we find a way to use statistics to our advantage. You’ll never beat the casino in the long run, but you can really beat the moments when the distribution of hiccup and things go your way.
Talk about “change” which is the mean square of each number of the mean of a dataset. Huh? Do not worry, you do not need a degree in mathematics from Harvard to figure that out. It is simply a measure of data distribution. Consider the familiar example of the coin flip and this is applicable to almost every casas de apuestas deportivas out there.
Suppose we turn the coin 10,000 times. We are eager to appear about 5000 times the ends and tails appear about 5000 times. Suppose you bet $ 1 to the head of each flap. If these bets are equal, we expect the result to be zero – or near – when they turn 10 000. As described in one of the other articles, the house does not give us money even when he loses. coin flip example, we have, instead of costing us $ 1 for every loss, I think we only pay $ 0.96. With this built-in house advantage, we will have a negative impact of waiting to lose about $ 200 after 10 000 revolutions. Here’s the math. If we expect around 5,000 heads and tails to appear around 5000, we expect to lose $ 1 x 5000 = $ 5000, and winning a 5000 x $ 0.96 = $ 4,800. $ 5,000 – $ 200 = $ 4,800. This is called “negative expectation”.
Now, these 10 000 for the translation, I believe that we are concentrating on only 30 of them, and we will continue betting at the ends. Of turn 30, we can see the end of 25 times and he is only 5 times. These data indicate that the variability of a limited number of laps around a short period of time, we may get lucky and experience Nirvana if things go our way. I call it “Nirvana hiccups” the distribution, which causes a relatively large variation. In this example, only 30 laps, you get $ 24, and 25 of the head (ie 25 x $ 0.96 = $ 24), May 5 and lose $ code (ie 5 x $ 5 = $ 1), we gives the net to win $ 19. This change in the short term temporarily removes long-term negative expectations, which means that there are times when you can walk away from a winner.
Even if you lose in the long term, there are times when you win because of the variance. Suppose we take a vacation of three days in Las Vegas once a year and play four hours of play sessions per day of nuts (ie a total of 12 hours). It can get very lucky and had to Nirvana hiccups during each session, and then go home a big winner. In this case, you can go home thinking you’re a genius, a god of craps, undefeated, world-class stud game. Yeah, okay. I do not recommend killing your day job.
Suppose you have a Vegas local who plays an hour every day after work. In this case, it is clear that what Nirvana few hiccups have properly set up so that you lose your shirt in the long term.
Consequently, few craps players, yes, always win if it has a chance to hit, Nirvana hiccups. However, the frequent long-player has no chance of winning out at the end of his life craps. Part of the secret craps is how to be around these occasional hiccups Nirvana when the dice come your way.
